Mu binyejana by’imyaka ishize, umuhanga mu by’ubukure (Gerontologist) Jay Olshansky n’abandi banditsi bagaragaraje ko ku mpuzandengo, abana bavuka muri iki gihe bashobora kuzabaho kugeza ku myaka 85 gusa uretse 1% kugeza kuri 5% bashobora kugeza ku myaka 100.
Icyo gihe, benshi ntibemeranyijwe n’ukuri k’ubwanditsi bwa Olshansky wigisha umwarimu muri Kaminuza ya Illinois na bagenzi be.
Ejo ku wa Mbere, tariki ya 7 Ukwakira 2024 nibwo Olshansky yongeye kugaragaza ko ibyo bavuze mu myaka 34 ishize byari bifite ukuri.
Olshansky ati “Mu 1990, twavuze ko ubwiyongere mu gihe cy’ubuzima bw’abantu buzagenda bugabanuka buhoro buhoro. Abantu benshi batubwiye ko batabishyigikiye. Bati, ‘Oya, oya, OYA!’ Bavugaga ko iterambere ry’ubuvuzi n’ikoranabuhanga rizatuma abantu bazaramba cyane, kandi rikazatuma igihe cy’ubuzima kigenda cyiyongera.”
None kuri ubu nyuma y’imyaka 34, Olshansky avuga ko we n’abo bafatanyije ubushakashatsi babonye ibyemeza ibyo bari baravuze na mbere hose.
Nk’uko aba banditsi babitangarije mu Kinyamakuru Nature Aging kuri uyu wa Mbere, isesengura ryabo ku bijyanye n’igihe cy’ubuzima barishingira ku mibare yo mu bihugu birimo Australia, Ubufaransa, Hong Kong, Ubutaliyani, Ubuyapani, Koreya y’Amajyepfo, Espagne, Suwede, Ubusuwisi n’Amerika.
By’umwihariko, abana b’abakobwa bavutse muri 2019 muri ibyo bihugu bafite amahirwe angana na 5.1% yo kugeza ku myaka 100, nk’uko ubushakashatsi bubigaragaza. Ku bahungu, amahirwe ni 1.8% gusa.
Olshansky ati “Twategereje imyaka 30 kugira ngo dusuzume ibyo twavuze. Twerekanye ko igihe cy’ubwiyongere bukabije mu gihe cy’ubuzima bwa muntu cyarangiye. Ubu rero, ndashaka ko ibi bisobanuka neza, haracyari ubwiyongere bw’igihe cyo kubaho, ariko bugenda buhoro ugereranyije no mu myaka yashize.”
Ku bantu benshi bavuga ko mu bihe biri imbere abantu bashobora kuzajya bagira imyaka 120 cyangwa 150, Olshansky yagize ati: “Nimureke gukabya. Ibi ni ibitekerezo bidashobora kubonerwa gihamya kuko bidashobora gupimwa mu buryo bwa siyansi.”
Nk’uko Olshansky abivuga, umugore umwe rukumbi ni we wabashije kugeza ku myaka 122
Uwo mugore ni Jeanne Calment wavutse mu 1875 i Arles mu Bufaransa, igihe icyizere cyo kubaho cyari hafi imyaka 45. Yitabye Imana afite imyaka 122 n’iminsi 164 mu 1997, nubwo yari yarabayeho anywa itabi na divayi.
Olshansky ahuza uku kugabanuka kw’igihe cyo kubaho n’ikwirakwira ry’indwara zikomoka ku mubyibuho ukabije nka diyabete yo mu bwoko bwa kabiri n’izindi.
Yagize ati: “Nibyo, twabonye ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abafite umubyibuho ukabije mu baturage, kandi umubyibuho ukabije utuma abantu bagira diyabete, indwara z’umutima, kanseri n’izindi ndwara. Njye na bagenzi banjye inyandiko mu 2005 ivuga ko iki kizaba ari cyo gihe cya mbere aho abana bazagira igihe gito cyo kubaho kurusha ababyeyi babo bitewe n’umubyibuho ukabije.”
Olshansky akomeza yemeza ko kubera ikoranabuhanga mu buvuzi bituma muri iki gihe benshi bageza imyaka 70, 80 ndetse na bake bageza muri za 90.