Hashize iminsi hatutumba umwuka w’intambara mpuzamahanga kubera amakimbirane akomeje kwiyongera mu bice bitandukanye by’isi, cyane cyane mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati, intambara hagati ya Ukraine n’u Burusiya, no mu bindi bice.
Bitewe n’ubukana bw’aya makimbirane, hari abavuga ko Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi ishobora kuba iri ku muryango. Ariko se, iramutse ibaye, yaba iteye ite? Nta gushidikanya ko yaba itandukanye cyane n’Intambara ya Kabiri y’Isi.
Abahanga mu bya gisirikare baganiriye n’ikinyamakuru Newsweek bagaragaza uko babona intambara nk’iyo ishobora gutangira, abayigaragaramo n’ibyo kwitega mu gihe amakimbirane yakomeza kwiyongera.
Ibihugu by’i Burayi bimaze igihe byitegura bucece intambara ishobora kubihuza n’u Burusiya, mu gihe NATO nayo yiteguye intambara y’amasasu y’ingufu, cyangwa uburyo bwo guhangana n’ibyahungabanya umutekano w’ibihugu binyamuryango.
Mu Ugushyingo 2024, Bruno Kahl ukuriye iperereza mu Budage yavuze ko u Burusiya nabwo bwiteguye intambara n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba isaha iyo ari yo yose.
Ariko kandi, u Burusiya si bwo gusa bushobora gutangiza intambara mpuzamahanga. Admiral Mark Montgomery wahoze ari umusirikari na James Anderson wahoze ari umunyamabanga wungirije ushinzwe umutekano, bavuga ko intambara ikomeye ishobora guterwa n’amakimbirane hagati y’ibihugu bikomeye: u Burusiya, Ubushinwa, Koreya ya Ruguru, Iran, n’Amerika.
Uko intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi ishobora gutangira
Impuguke zigaragaza ko ikibazo gikomeye gishobora guterwa n’amakimbirane y’uturere – cyane cyane ibyerekeye impungenge z’uko u Bushinwa bushobora kuzatera Taiwan, ko u Burusiya bushobora kwagura ibikorwa byabwo bikarenga Ukraine, cyangwa ko Koreya ya Ruguru cyangwa Iran zishobora gutangiza intambara n’abaturanyi babo bo mu karere.
Anderson yagaragaje ko Baltics cyangwa Pologne bishobora kuba aho amakimbirane atangirira u Burusiya bushobora gukongeza hamwe na NATO, ibyo bikaba byakwagura amakimbirane y’i Ukraine bikaba intambara y’isi yose mu buryo bugaragara.
Anderson avuga ko ibikorwa bya Isiraheli bishobora gutuma intambara y’akarere yaguka hashingiwe ku ntambara imazemo iminsi hagati yayo na Hamas, Hezbollah, ibyiyongera ku myivumbagatanyo imaze iminsi muri Syria aho kuri ubu ubutegetsi bwa Assad bwamaze guhirikwa n’inyeshyamba.
Montgomery, umujenerali mukuru wavuye mu ngabo, yemeraza ko u Burusiya ari bwo bushobora kuba intandaro ikomeye y’intambara yagutse, agaragaza ko Moscou ifite uruhare mu makimbirane mato mu bihugu nka Georgia na Serbia.
Montgomery avuga ko Putin adatinya cyane gufata ibyemezo byashyira isi mu kaga ku buryo byongera amahirwe yo kubyara amakimbirane.
Avuga ko Iran ari iya kabiri ku rutonde rw’aho ibibazo bikomeye bishobora gutangirira, avuga ku mitwe ya gisirikari ishyigikirwa na Iran nka Hamas, Hezbollah, na Houthis. Ibi bikaba biniyongera ku kuba Iran idatinya kugaba ibitero kuri Isiraheli mu buryo butaziguye.
Ibihugu bishobora kwinjira mu Ntambara ya Gatatu y’Isi
Abahanga mu bya gisirikare n’abasesenguzi bavuga ko amakimbirane ashobora kubaho azagaragaramo ubufatanye bw’ibihugu birimo u Burusiya, u Bushinwa, Koreya ya Ruguru, na Iran.
Beijing (u Bushinwa), Pyongyang (Koreya ya Ruguru), na Tehran (Iran) byamaze kugaragaza ubufatanye mu gushyigikira u Burusiya mu ntambara yabwo muri Ukraine.
Koreya ya Ruguru yohereje abasirikare ku rugamba nyuma yo gutanga ibikoresho bya gisirikare ku Burusiya ubwo ibikoresho byabo byari bigiye gushira nyuma y’imyaka ibiri y’intambara ikaze. Iran yatanze drones ku Burusiya, naho u Bushinwa bukomeza kugura ingufu ziva mu Burusiya ngo bukomeze ubukungu bwabwo butazahungabanywa n’ibihano byo mu Burengerazuba bw’Isi.
U Burusiya n’u Bushinwa ni abanyamuryango mu matsinda abiri y’ubucuruzi – itsinda ry’ubukungu rya BRICS n’Umuryango w’Ubufatanye wa Shanghai- bikaba byararushijeho kongera imikoranire mu by’ubukungu hagati y’ibihugu byombi.
Montgomery agira ati “Ukraine ntabwo irwana n’igihugu kimwe. Irwana n’ibihugu bine: irwana na drones za Iran buri joro, irwana na aritireli ya Koreya ya Ruguru … hari abasirikare ba Koreya ya Ruguru, kandi ibyo byerekana uburemere bw’ikibazo.”
Uretse ibyo bihugu bikomeye, abasesenguzi bombi banagaragaje akamaro ka NATO n’itsinda rya Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), rigizwe na Australia, u Buhinde, u Buyapani, n’Amerika.
Anderson ati “Mu buryo burambuye, intambara nk’iyi yakwitabirwa cyane n’ibihugu bikomeye nka’ u Budage, u Bufaransa, u Bwongereza, u Butaliyani, Pologne, ndetse n’ibihugu byo mu karere ka Baltics, bitewe n’aho igitero cyatangiriye.”
Anderson yongeyeho ati “Mu gihe byaba bigeze muri Indo-Pacifique ku bibazo birebana na Taiwan, u Buyapani byanze bikunze bwakwinjira kuko dufite ibirindiro byinshi by’ingabo zacu muri icyo gihugu. Australia nayo yagaragaje ko ishobora gushyigikira Amerika igihe u Bushinwa bwaba buteye Taiwan.”
Indoneziya, Maleziya na Filipine bishobora kwinjira muri iyi ntambara bitewe n’aho biherereye.
Mu gihe Koreya ya Ruguru yaba iteye, ibyo byakwagura ikibazo kikagera ku Buyapani kuko Pyongyang ishobora kugaba ibitero ku birindiro by’Amerika Bihari. Byongeye kandi Amerika ifite abasirikare ibihumbi 28,000 ku kirwa cya Koreya.
Montgomery avuga ko bigoye kumenya uruhande Turikiya n’u Buhinde byaba biriho kuko ngo bishobora kwirebera ahari inyungu zabyo cyane.
By’umwihariko Turukiya, “ntiyakora ikintu cyatuma Isiraheli iyihana cyangwa cyatuma Amerika iyihana … ariko nanone ikaba yagira uruhare mu kudasubiza ibintu mu buryo.”
Ni he haba hatekanye kurusha ahandi mu gihe cy’Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi?
Kubera uburemere bw’intambara ku rwego rw’Isi, ni ahantu hake hashobora kuba hafite umutekano, cyane cyane ko iyi ntambara ishobora guteza amakimbirane ashingiye ku mutungo nka peteroli yo muri Venezuela cyangwa amabuye y’agaciro aboneka mu bice bimwe by’Afurika.
Anderson avuga ko nibura kure y’ibirindiro bya gisirikari na kure y’ahari ibikorwaremezo bikomeye nko mu mijyi minini ari ho haba hagerageza kugira umutekano.
Ati “Mu gihe Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi yaba ibaye, ahandi hantu bikekwa ko haba hari umutekano ni mu bice by’imisozi ariko hatari ibirindiro bya gisirikari.”
Byatwara igihe kingana iki ngo isi ikire ingaruka z’intwaro kirimbuzi?
Igiteye ubwoba bw’Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi ni uko ishobora kugera ku rwego rwo gukoresha intwaro za kirimbuzi. Benshi bahuriza ku kuvuga ko izi ntwaro zishobora gukoreshwa.
Gusa ku rundi ruhande, impuguke zivuga ko izi ntwaro zidakunze gukoreshwa mu buryo bwihuse, kandi n’ubwo zakwifashishwa, byaba cyane cyane mu buryo bwa tactique, bugabanya ingaruka zabyo.
Impuguke zagaragaje uburyo u Burusiya bukunze gutera ubwoba bwo gukoresha intwaro za kirimbuzi ariko bukagira ubwoba bwo gufata icyemezo cyo kuzimura mu bigega byazo, bikerekana ko ibihugu bikomeye bizirikana neza igihombo kinini cyo kurenga umurongo utukura nk’uwo.
Anderson avuga ko ibyatangajwe na Putin ko ashobora gukoresha intwaro za kirimbuzi muri Ukraine kugeza ubu bikiri “ukwiyemera cyangwa gukanga”.
Anderson ati “Mu gihe cy’Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi, intwaro za kirimbuzi zishobora gukoreshwa nk’ikarita yanyuma mu gihe igihugu runaka kizifite cyaba gisumbirijwe kandi nta yandi mahitamo gifite.”
Montgomery yongeyeho ko ibishobora gutuma Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zikoresha intwaro za kirimbuzi byaba ari “igikorwa cyo kwirwanaho” aho kuba icyemezo cya mbere cyo gutera.
Impuguke zombi zemeranya ko igihe byafata kugira ngo Isi ikire ingaruka zaterwa n’intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi, cyagenwa n’uburyo intwaro kirimbuzi zakoreshejwe. Zikoreshejwe cyane byatwara igihe kinini, gusa ngo zikoreshejwe mu buryo buringaniye bwa ‘tactique’ byafata igihe gito.